The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) will from the next month of June to September 2024 receive above normal rainfall and higher than normal temperatures over most parts.
According to the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) – Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) who issued the seasonal forecast for June to September 2024, areas expected to experience these above-normal conditions include western and coastal Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.
On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
The climate patterns in the June-July- August-September (JJAS) 2024 period closely resemble those of 1998 and 2010, both of which experienced wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the region.
The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over Kenya, northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director noted that GHA stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities.
In a media briefing, he added that the forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience impacts of floods.
“As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems which serve as key instruments of preparedness, guiding us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key for Early Action,” Dr. Artan added.
In line with the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines and recommendations, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa.
May 2024 initialized seasonal forecasts from 9 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) were utilized and processed to develop the June-September 2024 seasonal climate outlook.
The seasonal forecasts and their hindcast data were analyzed to provide a probabilistic forecast indicating the likelihood of above-normal, normal, or below-normal rainfall.
The 67th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF67) was organized in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region, along with other partners, with the primary objective of issuing the seasonal forecast for June to September 2024.
By Wangari Ndirangu
