Farmers in Nyeri could be staring at failed harvests as the October-December rains appear set to come to an end.
A seven-day weather forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department shows almost all the eight sub counties in Nyeri will experience sunny intervals from December 10 to December 16.
The reports also show most parts of the county will experience intermittent cloudiness with maximum day time temperatures likely to range from 22 degrees centigrade to 27 degrees centigrade.
Minimum night time temperatures are expected to range between 12 degrees centigrade and 15 degrees centigrade.
“The Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County) (Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi Counties, intermittent cloudiness is expected in the morning giving way to sunny intervals for the rest of the day. However, occasional afternoon and night showers may occur over a few mountainous areas during the first half of the forecast period.” the report reads.
The report also shows that compared with November 25 to December 1, 2024, and December 2 to 8, 2024 period, there was a noted decrease in rainfall amounts over most parts of the country.
The highest seven-day rainfall total of 89.5mm was recorded at Kanyangwa Rainfall Station in Kilifi County while Miyare Rainfall Station in Migori County recorded the highest amount of rainfall within a span of 24-hours with 47.6mm on December 2.
Nyeri County Director of Meteorological Services John Muiruri says the weather agency had shared vital information with relevant stakeholders within the county just before the onset of the short rains to enable them disseminate it to the public.
Muiruri says such information was crucial as it would have helped the farmers to know when to plant and what kind of crops to plant in view of the expected reduced rains.
“The October -November -December rains came as we had announced earlier on. We had issued the necessary weather advisory report ahead of time and even called for farmers to plant fast maturing crops during this season. For those who heeded this advice, they may harvest something from what they planted. Unfortunately, for those who went ahead and planted crops that take longer to mature, they will certainly lose their harvest,” says Muiruri.
Early in October, Muiruri had told KNA that the onset of the short rains would come around the third week of that month.
The officer had similarly hinted that the rains would be normal before tending to depressed showers later in mid-December.
“The short rains will begin from the third to fourth week of October. What we are experiencing is not seasonal rains. These rains will be short-lived and the dry spell will extend to the third and fourth week of this month,” he said.
A weather outlook report from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) dated September 30 showed the onset of the short rains was anticipated between the fourth week of October and the first week of November over the eastern part of the country.
The rains were also expected to occur during the third to fourth week of October over the central parts of the country that include Nairobi.
The expected total rainfall amounts were however predicted to be near to slightly above the long-term average amounts for October.
The October -November -December distribution of rains was also predicted to be poor over most parts of the country with prolonged dry spells and cases of isolated storms, according to a rainfall weather outlook by KMD released on August 31 2024.
But the month of October came and went and farmers began panicking they could be staring at a failed harvest as most of them had already put seeds in their farms.
There was also the fear that any downpour after October may be too little too late considering that most of the crops like maize require an uninterrupted downpour of at least two months.
“We often anticipate the rains to fall around October 25 but this time things have really changed. We can only hope it will rain in the next few days. Short of that I fear I might end up losing my entire crop of beans,” said Mrs Mary Wachira, a farmer from Gatitu village, Nyeri Township who had put her 10-acre piece of land under beans.
She is nevertheless grateful after managing to realize a bumper maize harvest during the last season thanks to the heavy long rains.
Wachira’s sentiments were echoed by Charles Chege a resident of Gathuthi village in Othaya subcounty.
Chege said he feared he may end up losing his entire crop of maize as most of the young saplings had already started to wither.
“We had planted early with the high expectations that the rains would fall on time following assurance from the Kenya Meteorological Department. Unfortunately, such hopes are going up in smoke. Things have really changed. I fear for the future.” he admits.
During an interview with KNA recently, Central Region National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) coordinator Lordman Lekakul had called for adoption of alternative approaches in crop production as a way of mitigating against unseen weather conditions.
Lekakul warned that the country could very well be staring at another disappointing season where farmers may end up reaping less than what they had anticipated.
“This season (the rains) would be below normal, either near normal or below normal. It means we are not expecting much from this season. We are asking the farmers to plant fast maturing or drought tolerant crops. They should not plant maize seeds that last six months because the onset (of the rains) is actually supposed to be during the first week of November and it will stop in the second week of December. There is basically not much to celebrate in terms of harvest,” he stated.
The officer however ruled out the possibility of there being a food crisis in the county saying such a scenario could only happen following two failed rainy seasons.
Kenya had been battling her worst drought in over four decades until last year following worsening ecological changes.
In the wake of five failed rainy seasons, close to 2.5 million animals had reportedly died by early 2022 and at least 5 million Kenyans reported to be in urgent need of food relief.
In 2021 the World Food Program (WFP) had estimated that four consecutive failed seasons in the country had resulted in close to 2.4 million livestock deaths, dried-out water sources and sharply reduced harvests.
The number of people in urgent need of food assistance had by then risen five-fold, from 739,000 in August 2020 to 3.5 million in June 2022.
By Samuel Maina
